Bulletin Spring‧Summer 1978

new solutions of the endogenous variables will already take the policy change into account. Q. Is the ERC model bias-free? Does it have any limitations? A. It must be recognized that though econometric forecasting is a scientific work, it is also an art. It is scientific because the model is based on economic principles and statistical theory. But even so, errors can still occur because statistical inference is not immune from probabilistic dis turbances. It is an art because to a certain extent, there is some degree of arbitrariness in the model building process. Furthermore, the presumably known values of the exogenous variables are in many cases not precisely known beforehand. Therefore, it is not possible for any model to be absolutely free from biases. Q. What difficulties have you encountered in con structing the model? A. It is not possible to discuss all the difficulties we have encountered because most of them are technical. An example is that we have to write long computer programmes for the 2-stage-least- squares method and the Gauss-Seidel method, the ones we employ to construct and solve our model. Besides, while the data of other regions extend much further back, the data available in Hong Kong cover only a comparatively short span of time, less than twenty years, and are barely sufficient for a forecast. Q. Finally, what is the significance of the ERC model's joining the international Project link? A. The reliability of the lin k forecasts depends a great deal on the quality and on the number of national models it includes. Hong Kong is a rather important economy, especially in the Far East. We expect that the incorporation of the ERC model into the Pacific Sub-link will contribute to the further improvement of this project. Aside from this, this kind of international operation will enable scholars around the world to have more chance of exchanging ideas, which, needless to say, is most welcomed by those in the academic circle. Medical Meeting of Medical Academic Advisory Committee The University's Medical Academic Advisory Com mittee held its third meeting in Hong Kong from 27th February to 4th March, 1978. The Committee consists of the following members: Professor W. H. Trethowan, Professor of Psy chiatry, Birmingham University (Chairman) Sir Melville Arnott, formerly Professor of Medicine, Birmingham University Professor A.D.M. Greenfield, Dean and Pro fessor of Physiology, Nottingham University Professor A.P.M. Forrest, Professor of Surgery, Edinburgh University Dr. John Z. Bowers, President, Josiah Macy Jr. Foundation, New York Professor J. B. Gibson, Dean and Professor of Pathology, University of Hong Kong Dr. the Hon. K. L. Thong, Director of Medical and Health Services, Hong Kong Professor Gerald H. Choa, Dean of the Faculty of Medicine, The Chinese University of Hong Kong The meeting assessed progress in general on the establishment of the Medical Faculty, in particular on the schedules of accommodation for both the Basic Medical Sciences Building (Choh-Ming l i Building) and the Teaching Hospital in Shatin. The Committee visited the hospital site on 27th February and met with the Vice-Chancellor on 4th March to discuss admission requirements, cirriculum, staff structure and recruitment. 30