Bulletin Autumn‧Winter 1992

CITATIONS P r o f . E z r a F . V o g e l , L i t t . D . C h i n a 's e c o n o my w e nt t h r o u gh t w o m e t a m o r p h o s es i n t he s e c o nd h a lf o f t he 2 0 th c e n t u r y. 1 9 49 s aw the b e g i n n i ng o f socialist p l a n n ed e c o n o m y, p u t t i ng a i l sectors o f e c o n o m ic d e v e l o p m e n t u n d er central c o n t r o l. 1 9 7 9, o n t he o t h er h a n d, m a r k ed a d e p a r t u re f r om c e n t r al c o n t r ol w h en D e ng X i a o p i n g 's s o c i a l i sm w i th C h i n e se characteristics w as i n t r o d u c ed i n t he coastal r e g i o ns o f Jiangsu, G u a n g d o n g, F u j i a n, etc. I t n ow seems c e r t a in that a t h i rd w a ve — r e c e n t ly r e f e r r ed t o as socialist m a r k et e c o n o my -- is s c h e d u l ed f o r i m p l e m e n t a t i on i n t he n e xt decade, c o i n c i d i ng a p p r o x i m a t e l y w i th the r u n - u p t o 1 9 97 w h en H o ng K o ng reverts t o C h i n e se rule. A c c o r d i ng t o P r o f. E z ra F . V o g e l. D i l l on P r o f e s s or o f I n t e r n a t i o n a! A f f a i r s, H a r v a rd U n i v e r s i t y, the j o b o f a s o c i al scientist i s t o d e s c r i be t h e b r o ad s o c i al base against w h i ch c h a n g es are b o u nd to take p l a c e. A social scientist, i n o t h er w o r d s, c a n n ot p r e d i c t. A nd y et o ne o n ly needs t o l o ok t h r o u gh P r o f. V o g e l 's list o f p u b l i c a t i o ns t o b e c o n v i n c ed that he has a f a i r ly g o od sense of t h i n gs to c o me as w e l as h ow these c h a n g es b e ar u p on t he c o m m on p e o p l e. Canton Under Communism ( 1 9 6 9) w a s a classic r e g i o n al s t u d y, b a s ed m a i n ly o n the i n f o r m a t i on g a t h e r ed i n H o ng K o n g. T h en One Step Ahead in China a p p e a r ed e x a c t ly 2 0 years later, i n 1989, s o on after the J u ne 4 th i n c i d e n t. B a s ed o n m o n t hs o f research, v i s i ts a nd i n t e r v i e ws w i th l o c al w o rk u n i t s, f a c t o r i es a n d e c o n o m ic o f f i c i a l s, t h e b o ok g i v es d e t a i l ed d e s c r i p t i o ns o f e c o n o m ic a c t i v i t i es i n the p r o v i n c e. I n P r o f. V o g e l 's f u t u re p l a n, t he t h i rd part o f his C h i na t r i l o gy w i l deal w i th C h i na a nd H o ng K o ng at the t u rn o f t he n e xt c e n t u ry as a n assessment 44TH CONGREGATION 8