Newsletter No. 332

No. 332, 19.2.2009 1 繼最適所得稅率理論和道德風險之後，你最近在 鑽研甚麼學說？ After optimal taxation and moral hazard, what intellectual endeavours engage you lately? 我仍然致力誘因的研究，對合約理論的各方面也有興趣， 最近便嘗試研究對以選擇投資項目為業的經理人應行使 怎樣的紅利或獎賞制度。我也有研究中國的經濟增長，衡 量當人口由農村遷移到其他地方時所引起的變更。我一 向都喜歡思索甚麼應為、甚麼不應為；中國的增長是否太 快，還是太慢。人們沒經過深思熟慮的非理性行為也是我 興趣所在。 I continue to do quite a lot about incentive issues. I’ve been interested in all aspects of contract theory. An example is the nature of the bonus or reward system you should have for managers whose job is to choose among alternative projects or investments. I’ve also been looking into Chinese economic growth, to assess how things are going to change as migration within the country takes place from rural to urban areas. I tend always to ask questions about what ought to be done, whether China has been growing too fast, or too slowly. Another thing of interest is the economics of behaviour that is not fully rational, when people don’t think things out fully before they act. 2 人是善於計算的「經濟動物」，可會因文化不同而 有異？ The homo economicus is a rational and calculating being. Does he exhibit cultural differences? 我當然同意那是一個文化歧異的問題，但與民族文化的層 面無大關聯，反而與次文化有關。似乎不少例證顯示猶太 人長袖善舞，但他們也非唯一成功的生意人。中國的浙江 人、一些印度人也十分成功，這些例子之間並沒有明顯的 關係。人們的行為和認知可能受教育制度、教養和朋輩等 因素影響，更大的因素可能是個人身處的圈子—認識甚 麼人、這些人想法如何等。這是我的假設。 I certainly agree that there are cultural differences, not much related to national culture, but to do with sub- cultures. There seems to be a lot of evidences that Jews are successful in business, but by no means the only such group. The Zhejiang people in China and some Indian groups are also very successful. There’s no obvious connection among these cases. People’s behaviour and understanding might be influenced by their education system, the way they were brought up, and their peers. It’s possible that it’s much more to do with their circle of acquaintance—who you know, and the way they think. That would be my hypothesis. 3 讓你再選擇你的專業，會是甚麼？為甚麼？ If you are to choose your field again, what would it be and why? 詳加考慮之後，大抵還是經濟吧。我修的本是數學，後來 卻發現不那麼好玩，也不特別有用，尤其是我不以為數學 對解決當時的世界問題有多大用處。我當初想做社會學 家，但是又不覺得周遭有特別優秀的社會學家。選擇專業 不是想唸甚麼學科那樣簡單。我想，那門學科是否有特別 出色的理念和人才足以啟發我的興趣，仍然會影響我的選 擇；這並非甚麼冠冕堂皇的道德考慮。如果不是經濟學， 也許我會重拾數學吧。 I will think about it for a long time and probably come back to economics again. I was doing mathematics, but I felt that it wasn’t enjoyable as it had been and I didn’t think it was terribly useful, particularly in solving the world’s problems around that time. I was initially thinking of being a sociologist. But it didn’t seem to me that there were very good sociologists around. Choosing a field is not just a matter of what subject you want to look at. I think I will still be influenced by whether there are some really interesting ideas and some really bright people around that make me interested in doing it. That’s not a highly moral reason for choosing it. If it wasn’t economics, it would be mathematics that I would go back to. 4 閒暇有甚麼消遣？ What do you usually do in your spare time? 音樂佔了首位，我喜歡聽音樂。我曉得彈鋼琴，不過止於 自娛，談不上演奏水平。 Music will come top. I love listening to it. I play the piano, but for leisure only, not to the performance level. 5 要形容香港的話，首先在腦海出現的會是哪些形容 詞？ What are the adjectives that jump to your mind when it comes to describing Hong Kong? 第一是「效率」，跟着是「煙霧」。視覺上香港真是多采多 姿、引人入勝、亮麗悅目。我難以形容，總之就是「好看」。 當然我還親身感受到「友善」。談到香港的特色，我會說它 對金錢高度熱衷。「常變」也可算是香港的某種特色。 ‘Efficient’ comes first, and then ‘smoggy’ is another. Visually Hong Kong is very exciting, appealing, and beautiful. I couldn’t think of a good adjective to say that. I think it is ‘good looking’. ‘Friendly’ is of course one of the things that I experience. To say something specific about Hong Kong, I would say it has a high level of interest in money. ‘Changing’ somehow seems to be a kind of characteristic of Hong Kong. 6 你認為香港當前必須面對甚麼挑戰？ What challenges do you see Hong Kong facing in the near future? 當務之急是應付經濟衰退。我認為經濟衰退是可以遏止 的，但是以香港這樣開放的地方，又是全球經濟重要一員， 這次會來得很難受。增加政府開銷會引進更多入口，卻只 會對本土經濟局部有助。幫助世界其他地區也是重要的。 香港對全球經濟頗有影響，不容忽視。各國政府不應該以 為增加就業是不可能的。 The immediate challenge is the onset of a recession. It can probably be stopped, but it’s a difficult one for a place like Hong Kong which is so open, and part of the global economy. Expanding government spending, for example, would bring in imports and would only partially help the local economy. I think it’s important that it would help the rest of the world. Hong Kong is of some importance in the whole world economy. It’s not really negligible. Governments should not think it’s impossible to generate increased employment. 7 你認為金融和地產市場是否香港發展的基石？ Do you think that the financial and real estate markets are the cornerstone for the development of Hong Kong? 我的確認為房地產市場對香港非常重要，但這會導致兩難 局面。譬如說如果我們想政府多批一些土地以供發展，肯 定會拉低價格。房地產雖然重要，也不等如樓價高企是好 事。可惜過去數年，樓價漲得那麼高，無可避免必須下挫。 如果這一次政府增加土地供應，又能阻止樓價再上漲的 話，那便挺不錯了。 莫理斯爵士是最適所得稅率理論的先驅。他的研究為資訊傾斜下的誘因理論奠下基礎，貢獻 良多，因而獲頒1996年諾貝爾經濟學獎。他在2002年出任中大博文講座教授；2006年晨興書 院成立，獲委任為院長。 A pioneer in optimal taxation theory, Prof. Sir James Mirrlees was awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 1996 in recognition of his fundamental contributions to the economic theory of incentives under asymmetric information. He has been a Distinguished Professor-at-Large at CUHK since 2002, and was appointed Master-designate of Morningside College upon its establishment in 2006.