Newsletter No. 479

財金淺趣 Financially Friendly 亂中有序 The Haphazard Forces of the Market 《星球大戰：原力覺醒》中有一位白兵，跟以往星戰系列的 不同，不再是只懂執行命令，盲目殺戮的複製人，而是有自我 意願，懂獨立思考，作自行判斷的FN-2187（後取名 Finn）。 Finn其實更似一位基金經理。小投資者最常問的一個問題 是為甚麼不同的基金經理會對市場走勢有截然不同的看 法。舉例說，基金經理甲對中國的前景樂觀，對歐洲悲觀； 但基金經理乙則可以持完全相反意見。那麼小投資者應該聽 信哪位？他或她如何在不同的投資推介中作出正確的選擇？ 答案其實簡單不過。首先，基金經理不是預言家，他們只不 過是對未來作出臆測。事實上，他們的臆測不會比預言家 的準。和經濟學者一樣，基金經理做到最好都只能解釋已發 生的事。3月出版的一期《金融時報》有篇文章，作者這樣寫 道：「金融學教授和消費者團體已多次指出，基金經理收費 過高，對客户幫助過小……過去十年，86%的歐洲股票基金 未能達標。」 其次，假如每一位基金經理或投資者都對前景抱一致的看 法，市場上將無法出現任何交易。舉例說，如果投資者甲看 好水滙豐股票，願意以市價買入，試想想在其他人都看好的 情況下，有誰會把滙豐股票售予甲？再假設另一投資者乙不 看好香港的物業市道，計劃出售其物業，在所有其他投資者 都看淡香港物業市道的情況下，有誰會買入乙的物業？ 跟動物界某些物種不同，人類社會並不一定靠和諧和共識推 動，由一個個血肉真人構成的市場亦然。 In Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015), there is a special character not in previous Star Wars movies. He is FN-2187 (aka ‘Finn’), a Stormtrooper of the First Order. Unlike his predecessors since Star Wars: Attack of the Clones (2002), Finn is not a clone but a human being who enlisted himself in the First Order. A human being rather than a machine or a cyborg, Finn has his own will and volition, exercising independent thinking and making his own judgments and choices. Finn is indeed like many a fund manager. One question that private investors often ask is why fund managers have very diverse views on the markets, e.g., Fund Manager A is bullish on China and bearish on Europe while Fund Manager B has the exact opposite views. Who should the investor trust and how can he/she make his/her investment decisions based on the managers’ diverse recommendations? The answer is indeed very simple. Firstly, these fund managers are not fortune tellers. All they can say are their best guesses of the future only, and we know from experience that they are worse than the fortune tellers; similar to economists, they can at best explain the past. In a Financial Times article in March 2016, the author wrote that: ’Finance professors and consumer groups have long argued that active managers charge too much and deliver too little for their clients’ and ‘in Europe, … 86% … active equity funds failed to beat their benchmark … over the past decade.’ Secondly, let’s look at the extreme situation where every fund manager or investor has the same view of the future. When that happens, there will surely be no financial transactions. For example, if Investor A is bullish on HSBC stock and willing to buy at current market price, imagine who would be willing to sell HSBC stocks to Investor A given that every fund manager or investor is bullish on HSBC stock? Take another example, if Investor B is bearish on Hong Kong residential properties and planning to sell his flat, who would be willing to buy it from him if every other investor shares the same bearish view on the Hong Kong residential property market? Unlike some species in the Animal Kingdom, the human society, or for our purpose amarket of individual human agents, runs on a logic far from perfect harmony and uniformity. Navigating a Misty Sea The second global theme that emerged from the study was the issue of students connecting their subject to other social domains they inhabit or intend to inhabit. Professor Chan said that this theme is important as ‘it helps with identifying some of the struggles students face as they make these connections. It helps them, and us teachers, look at possibilities for linking their major studies to their other interests and activities. A major in English, as in all other disciplines, should not be seen as an isolated activity to be only confined to the classroom and the university. But these connections may not be straightforward and I believe they need to be encouraged and constantly reflected on individually by the students themselves.’ Is it normal that half of the students she interviewed had difficulty translating their subject identity into potential future social identities? Professor Chan said, ‘Students don’t generally enter university knowing precisely who they are and what they want to do in life. So I would see it very much as part of growing up and finding themselves, which is an essential part of university life. In this sense, whether one majors in the humanities or other disciplines makes little difference. I see the continued reflection on the meaning and value of one’s studies not as destructive— it is not a cynical, skeptical pursuit—but an affirming, necessary, positive and continuous experience.’ Capstone to the Outside World In her paper, Professor Chan suggests that a capstone course can provide the necessary guidance to humanities students in making connections to the outside world. A capstone course is already part of the Department of English’s requirement for graduation. Professor Chan said, ‘Such a course can obviously be very challenging for students, as many students may not yet have very concrete plans for their lives after graduation. But it is an exercise that is important in form as well as substance. It is much less about making students follow up on specific career plans that they can link to their project work, and much more about starting a process of self-reflection, so that they can continue to make such links for the rest of their lives. That way their studies will continue to be relevant to them no matter what their interests or occupations may be— and they will hopefully continue to reflect actively on these relevancies.’ Apology Not Required Coming back to the ultimate question on the use of a degree in literature, Professor Chan said, ‘This question is tied to other questions that the student should be encouraged to think about: What do you find inspiring and stimulating? What interests you the most? What are you particularly good at? What gives you the greatest sense of meaning and fulfillment? Then I would ask: How does that link back to what you’ve done in your degree? When you remember a course as having been particularly stimulating and enriching, can you explain why specifically with reference to your own interests and the questions that drive you as a person, instead of speaking in very general terms?’ Lastly, Professor Chan gave an affirmative verdict to an undergraduate commitment to the humanities: ‘For example, having been personally moved by particular literary portrayals or texts can also be extended to broader interpretations of the student’s personality, interests and abilities, which in turn may map onto specific careers outside of academia, if the student decides academia is not the path to take. A degree in literature therefore becomes a journey of personal growth and self-discovery, towards a self-authored destination afterwards.’ 479 • 4.6.2016 5