Bulletin No. 2, 2014

6   Chinese University Bulletin No. 2, 2014 Global Food Security & Climate Change Food production is highly vulnerable to climate change and air pollution with implications for global food security. Climate change adaptation and ozone regulation are important strategies for safeguarding food production, but little is known about how climate and ozone pollution interact to affect agriculture, nor the relative effectiveness of these two strategies for different crops and regions. Prof. Amos P.K. Tai , assistant professor in the University’s Earth System Science Programme, has succeeded in using a computer simulation of future climate and air quality to present an integrated analysis of the individual and combined effects of climate change and ozone trends between 2000 and 2050 on the production of four major crops worldwide: wheat, rice, maize and soybean, b a s e d o n h i s t o r i c a l observations and model projections. The study was the first to consider the interactive effects of climate change and air pollution on agriculture. Professor Tai’s computer model projected that the global average temperature of the growing season will rise by 1 to 2°C from now to 2050 in all scenarios considered. It also projected that the rise in temperature will reduce global food production by over 10% and increase undernourishment rates by over 30% in all scenarios. By further investigating the impact of ozone air pollution, Professor Tai observed that uncontrolled pollution may exacerbate the effects of climate change. However, he also found that the damaging impact can be potentially offset by the cultivation of more heat-tolerant crop varieties and the adoption of aggressive ozone regulation. Controlling the emission of hydrocarbon and nitrogen oxide, for example, can curb the rise in undernourishment by about 50%. The findings have important implications for environmental and agricultural policy-making and call for greater collaboration between farmers, agricultural policy planners and air quality managers. ‘ The agricultural impact of climate change and air pollution will worsen the malnutrition problem in developing countries, and entail greater fluctuations in food prices that will affect developed regions, including places like Hong Kong that import most of their food items.’