Newsletter No. 482

地 理與資源管理學系徐袁教授一直致力嘗試解開這個疑團：為何中國某些針對高效能源 生產和減少污染的政策會欠缺成效？ 為此，徐教授提出了革新的概念：在中國，若要有效地減低二氧化硫排放，關鍵在於循序漸 進，而不是花時間去尋找一個最「理想」的解決方案，因為這些所謂「理想」的方案，往往只適 用於發展完善的國家。因此，徐教授提出「比較優勢戰略」的解決方針，指出任何足以令目前 情況有所改善的措施，中國都應該採納，毋需等待尋得「最佳」方案才開始推動減排工作。 這意味着無論中央政府怎樣努力，亦無法事先具體計劃控制污染的途徑。但由於中國目前的污 染情況充滿不明朗因素，反而不利於執行長期而確切的政策方案。 一般人或會認為，以中央政府強大的力量，總能推動一些改變，但徐教授卻對此看法有所保留。 在2012年間，中央政府對環境治理的支出僅佔政府總開支的2%；其餘的98%均來自地方政府。 對於中央所定的法律和政策，地方政府雖然表面順從，但其實際行動，才是解決問題的關鍵， 而他們行動與否，又往往取決於所得的回報與獎勵。徐教授相信，若缺乏中央實質的鼓勵措 施，地方政府很難積極且有效地控制污染。 監管排污者是件非常困難的事，當法例要求業界使用二氧化硫洗滌器，地方政府只會在首星 期檢查洗滌器是否運作正常，並在檢查表打上剔號。首輪檢查完畢後，你可以在Google Earth 上看到洗滌器，但這些機器是否仍在運作，就不得而知。 徐教授的精闢見解，來自他多年來訪問逾百名業界、政府和非政府組織人士的經驗。他選擇透 過朋友─而非官方途徑，直接聯絡發電廠的負責人與工作人員，以避免受訪者在回答問題時 有所顧慮。一些受訪者更會告訴他如何取巧、繞過某些法律規定，也有人向徐教授下逐客令， 但他並不介意。 「這反而令我對調查結果更有信心─我情願被趕走，也不要得到虛假的答案。」徐教授會由不同 的角度提問，作交叉檢查，亦會參考數據來查明事實。「我心算很快，能邊做訪問邊心算。」 徐教授又會親身到發電廠現場考察，有時甚至在發電廠「住」上一兩天，體驗廠內情況。他認 為設定太長遠的目標、或為遙遠的未來制定嚴格的路線圖，成果總是強差人意；相反，追求漸 進式的改變，比執行「最終完美方案」更為實際。 在他看來，追求完美不應阻礙事情的進展。如果發現下一階段的方案比目前的更好，即使方案 並非完美，都應該採納，他認為：「只要是好的方案就夠了。」 徐教授擁有不同學科的研究訓練，有助他全面且透徹地了解一個複雜的課題，而非只着重研究 問題的其中一個範疇。他所提出的「比較優勢策略」，已於多份著名學術期刊，如美國化學學 會出版的 Environmental Science & Technology 上刊登。 比起遵循明確的路線圖，隨機應變也許不是最周詳的解決方法。然而，在發展中國家的種種不 理想條件之下，這方法卻能最快收到正面的果效。此計劃提出的論點，極有可能成為中國能否 有效地開發再生能源和推動減排工作的重要關鍵。 P rof. Xu Yuan of CUHK’s Department of Geography and Resource Management has been chasing answers as to why some of China’s policies on efficient energy production and pollution reduction have failed. In his most seminal work to date, he proposed a new concept to explain the best way of implementing policies aimed at sulphur-dioxide mitigation. His primary finding is that China should pursue a path of incremental progress instead of seeking the ‘ideal’ solutions that might work in developed nations. He advocates what he calls a ‘comparative advantage strategy.’ China should adopt any step that progresses from the current situation. The country shouldn’t wait for a ‘best solution,’ he has found. This means that the path of progress is not clearly planned in advance, despite Beijing’s best efforts. There are huge uncertainties given China’s smoggy situation that very likely prevent any long-term, definitive intelligent design. You would think that the powerful central government would drive change. But Professor Xu believes that is not the case. In 2012, central-government spending on environmental governance accounted for only 2% of the total. The remaining 98% came from local governments. Local governments often pay active lip service to laws and policies laid down by Beijing. But it is their actions that are most meaningful. What rules they enforce depends on incentives. No pollution-control policy is effective without motivating and incentivizing local governments, he believes. Monitoring compliance of polluters is exceptionally difficult. When the industry deployed the first sulphur-dioxide scrubbers, local-government inspectors would only check if the scrubbers were working in the first week, ticking that box. Subsequent monitoring is the real headache—you can see scrubbers on Google Earth, but you can’t tell if they’re running. To come to his conclusions, Professor Xu has interviewed some 100 people from industry, government and NGOs over the years, using formalized sets of questions. He looks for friends to introduce him to power-station contacts, not the government, since that adds pressure. He has found that some will just tell him how they cheat the system. Others kick him out—but that’s good. ‘I want them to feel free to kick me out rather than to cheat me—then I can have confidence in the interviews,’ he says. He asks questions from different angles to cross-check. Then he also uses data to get to the truth. ‘I can calculate quickly in my mind—I’m pretty good at it now even during an interview.’ His on-the-ground research at power plants—where he at times spends one to two days ‘living’ in the plants—has given him real-world insight into what is happening in reality rather than on paper. Once-and-for-all goals produce little result, he feels. Neither does setting strict roadmaps that look to the distant future. Professor Xu suggests that incremental improvement is much better than enforcing the ‘ultimate solution.’ ‘The perfect should not be the enemy of the good,’ the Xinjiang native explains in a presentation. If you can see the next-stage solution is better than this one, you should go for it even if it has problems, he adds. ‘A good solution is often good enough.’ ‘My training enables me to tell the whole story, not just one aspect of the story,’ he says. He has outlined his comparative-advantage strategy in publications such as Environmental Science & Technology , a prominent journal put out by the American Chemical Society. The idea of such an on-the-fly method of achieving results rather than following a definitive roadmap is imperfect and messy. But this is likely the fastest route to achieving positive results in the unfavourable conditions presented by developing nations, Professor Xu concludes. Enabling such a strategy, whether intentionally or not, explains whether energy-development and pollution-mitigation efforts will succeed in China. 對抗中國污染的大難題 The Mysterious Case of Combating Pollution in China 洞 明 集 / I n P lain V iew 04 # 4 8 2 | 0 4 . 0 9 . 2 0 1 6 徐袁教授 Prof. Xu Yuan English text by Alex Frew McMillan